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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-07-31T21:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-07-31T21:24Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47916/-1
CME Note: Faint CME observed to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2, may be observed to the NE in GOES CCOR-1 but heavily obscured by overlapping far-sided CME: 2026-07-31T23:00Z and real-time data gaps. The source may be the cluster of AR 14498/14450, closer to AR 14498 as brightening near N15E29 surrounded by some weak dimming and field line movement in SDO AIA 193 starting around 2026-07-31T19:25Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-08-04T14:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/47919/1
Model Inputs:
2026-07-31T21:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-29.0, Lat.=20.0, Speed=356.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2026-08-01T06:52Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-08-04T14:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-08-05T16:00Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-08-05T16:00Z

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260801_065200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260801_065200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260801_065200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260801_065200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260801_065200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260801_065200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260801_065200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260801_065200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260801_065200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260801_065200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260801_065200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260801_065200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260801_065200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260801_065200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260801_065200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260801_065200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260801_065200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 71.33 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) on 2026-08-01T14:40Z

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